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Edge is a statistical claim about a process — not a guarantee about next week.
Expectancy ≈ (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss), measured in consistent R units. A high win rate with poor reward/risk can still lose money. A lower win rate with strong R can still be viable — if variance is survivable.
Risk of ruin rises when size is large relative to edge and when streaks of losses are ignored. Prop daily-loss rules are crude but useful circuit breakers; personal accounts need you to install your own.
Journal in R, not vibes. Review samples large enough to drown noise. Educational math — not a promise of positive expectancy for any specific EA or strategy.